Thus, I'd like to start this new topic and shed some light on these topics. I plan to make regular contributions, let's see what becomes of my motivation...

**# 1: Assassin attacks**

This is common : One of your characters is facing an attack from an assassin. How are the odds of defeating the attack / being killed?

Let's say, your wizard (untapped, 6/9) is attacked. You tap him to take the first strike, then being tapped you take the subsequent strikes.

Prob. of defeating (and getting 2 MP): 24.6%.

Prob. of getting killed: 14.7 %

(so it's 60.7 % your wizard survives without defeating the attack)

If you have an "Forewarned is Forearmed" at hand, your chances are:

Prob. of defeating: 72.2 %

Prob. of getting killed: 2.8 %

Btw, "Asssassin-slaying" Annalena is much more challenged: Her prob. of killing an assassin without any means is only 3.2 %

[edit: I've corrected a mistake in my calculations, see also below]